President Donald Trump is leading his Democratic presidential rival Joe Biden in four key battleground states among swing voters, according to a Zogby Poll released Wednesday.
Trump is gaining momentum among this critical bloc of voters as early voting in the presidential election is set to kick off in several states.
The Zogby Analytics Poll was conducted among likely voters in four battleground states – Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania between July 21-23.
Early voting begins in North Carolina on Sept. 4, followed by Georgia on Sept. 15. Florida begins early voting on Sept. 24 and Arizona follows beginning the first week of October.
“What’s keeping things close is Trump’s domination of swing voters,” Zogby Analytics wrote in the survey analysis. “A good portion of these voters live in large cities, are aged 30-49, and say their finances are better off than they were four years ago.
“In order for Trump to get back to his winning ways he will need to maintain a big lead among swing voters and he must also find a way to win back women, suburban voters and Independents from Biden’s clutches.”
“Right now, Biden has the edge because he is appealing to elements of Trump’s base, such as non-college-educated voters and voters aged 65+. He also has a commanding lead among independent voters in three of the battleground states surveyed (Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina) and is winning convincingly with suburban voters and suburban women in all four states,” Zogby noted.
Among swing voters, Trump is winning at least 60% support in each of the four battleground states polled: Florida (68%), North Carolina (63%), Ohio (60%), and Pennsylvania (73%). These are the voters who are most likely to be swayed one way or another in the final months of the 2020 presidential election campaign.
Biden is lagging way behind among swing voters in Florida (23%), North Carolina (20%), Ohio (21%), and Pennsylvania (18%).
Although Biden has a 4-point lead in North Carolina (44%-40%), the race is deadlocked between him and the president in three other states as both candidates are polling within the margin of error:
Florida: Trump 43%-Biden 43%.
Ohio: Biden 43%-Trump 41%.
Pennsylvania: Biden 44%-Trump 43%.
The totals polled and margins of errors by state are:
Florida polled 811 for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
North Carolina polled 809 for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Ohio polled 805 for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Pennsylvania polled 809 for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express poll released last Sunday also shows Trump leading Biden in the race for the White House and surpassing him in seven battleground states.
He leads Biden in the presidential race overall 48 percent to 46 percent, according to the poll, because Americans think he is best suited to pull the economy out of the slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Voters thinkTrump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.
Trump tops Biden in the swing states of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, giving him an insurmountable electoral college tally of 309 to Biden’s 229.
Trump leads Biden 47 to 45 in Florida and holds a razor thin 46 to 45 lead in Minnesota. In New Hampshire Trump leads Biden 46 percent to 43 percent.
Pollsters found that a third of voters chose the economy as their most important issue in the election. A significant majority of 66 percent believe the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus.
Director of the Democracy Institute Patrick Basham concluded that Biden’s campaign appears to have “reached its high water mark”.
“Although Biden remains in a competitive race with Donald Trump, and may well do so until election day, his support isn’t growing. And, tellingly, almost all of the issues that matter most to voters are trending in President Trump’s favor,” he said.
“More Americans are concerned about the economy and keeping their current, or getting a new, job. They don’t especially blame Trump for the lockdown-induced economic contraction, and they think he’ll do a better job of righting the economic ship than Biden.”