Data from poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight should have Democrats overjoyed at their prospects for winning the White House and sweeping the House and Senate in November.
Their presumed presidential nominee former vice president Joe Biden has an average lead of 8 percentage points over President Donald Trump in national polls. Biden also leads in a number of recent swing state polls.
Trump’s disapproval among voters hovers around 51.7 per cent while 44 percent approve. Democrats also have sizable leads in new Senate polls and they currently lead the generic congressional ballot by 2018-level margins.
A week ago they were excitedly awaiting upcoming special elections in California’s 25th Congressional District and Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District. Analysts were predicting that both elections would be bellwethers that could signal a blue wave for Democrats in November.
To their shock and dismay Republicans Tom Tiffany of Wisconsin and Mike Garcia of California flipped the seats by wide margins. Tiffany scored an impressive 14-point win in Wisconsin, while Garcia was declared winner in California, holding an almost 10-point lead while mail-in ballots are being counted.
The poll that seems to be worrying Democrats the most was conducted by SSRS for CNN, published last Wednesday. The poll of registered voters in showed 52 percent favoring Trump in swing states, while 45 percent supported Biden, even though he led Trump nationally by 51 percent to 46 percent. Biden was losing in several battleground states that are critical in determining Electoral College votes.
The poll surveyed 583 people across 15 states that were decided by 8 points or fewer in 2016. It showed the president with a seven-point lead over Joe Biden in 15 battleground states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Democrats also consider another poll in late March troubling. The ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Trump’s supporters are much more enthusiastic about voting for him than Biden supporters are for the seventy-seven year-old candidate.
A whopping 53% of Trump backers said they were very enthusiastic about voting for him while only 24% of Biden backers said the same about him, a 29-point difference. The candidate who leads on enthusiasm has won every presidential election since 1988. If this spread holds until November it would be the largest in history.
Americans also trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy at 54 percent to 42 percent, according to the CNN poll. A Reuters and Ipsos poll released in early May revealed that 43 percent of U.S. adults said Trump is better suited to create jobs while 32 percent trust Biden.
Trump boasted a 13-point advantage over Biden, a 7 point increase from the poll conducted in mid-April, that showed Trump with a 6 point lead over Biden.
Democrats are content with crowing over Biden’s national polling lead. For them it means they have Trump backed into a corner as the economy flails and the media keeps delivering punches. They are convinced they finally have the president on the run.