Texas has 38 electoral votes in the presidential election and the “Texodus” from Congress is dangling the state over the jaws of the Democratic Party.
Democrats have already flipped New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada and they are closing in on Arizona, with the help of an influx of Hispanic voters. If Texas falls Republicans could be permanently locked out of the White House.
Strong Democratic support in counties with a high, youthful Hispanic population helped make the Georgia gubernatorial race and the Texas Senate race close. According to Pew Research Center Democrats perform best among minority voters with at least an undergraduate degree who live in or near urban areas.
Texas Representative Kenny Marchant recently joined Pete Olson, Will Hurd and K. Michael Conaway, announcing plans to retire ahead of the 2020 elections.
A total of 11 House Republicans plan to retire or seek another office while only three House Democrats have announced they won’t run again. A surge of retirements from the state’s Republican Party representatives indicates a blue wave might be on the horizon. They could also lose the House of Representatives.
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, in an interview with radio show host Mark Davis on Monday, urged Republicans to address the scandal rocking the Texas House or risk losing control of that chamber in 2020.
Conservative activist Michael Quinn Sullivan accused Republican House speaker Dennis Bonnen of offering his organization coveted House media credentials if it worked to defeat 10 incumbent GOP House members, a claim Bonnen has denied.
In one decade the GOP has lost 18 House seats, moving from a 101-49 supermajority to an 83-67 split. With nine more seats Democrats will be in control.
Donald Trump carried Texas for the Republicans in 2016 with 52% of the vote, clocking in lower than any winning Republican since Herbert Hoover in 1928.
Texas is one of five states in which non-Hispanic whites are in the minority. The other four, Hawaii, California, New Mexico, and Nevada are all blue.
Latino Decisions reports that the voter turnout of the Hispanic population in Texas surged from 2014 to 2018 in heavily Hispanic counties, especially those along the border: Dallas County — 86 percent increase; Hidalgo — 105 percent increase; Cameron County — 115 percent increase and El Paso County — 168 percent increase.
By 2022, Latinos are expected to become the largest population group in Texas, although dominated by young people that won’t vote for several more election cycles.
Governor Greg Abbott downplayed the congressional resignations at a town hall last Thursday, saying he doesn’t see any signs that political winds are changing.
The GOP may be helped by the poor crop of presidential hopefuls and potential Senate candidates, Beto O’Rourke and Julián Castro.
Growth in the number of Hispanic voters aged 18-24 tripled in Georgia over the last decade, according to a UCLA study. The Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials released statistics showing that in 2016 the number of registered Hispanic voters reached 244,190, representing 3.66 percent of the state electorate.
They included individuals who identify as Latino both in the electoral registry as well as by last name. It showed 60,224 Latinos became registered voters between the years 2012 and 2016.
Jerry González, Executive Director of GALEO, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “Two areas where the Latino vote is strong are Gwinnett County and Cobb County. Gwinnett is the number one county, in terms of the quantity of Latino voters, and it has grown tremendously.”
According to the report, 44,567 Latinos were registered to vote in Gwinnett County in 2016, of which 57 percent voted in the November presidential election.
Gwinnett County has a total of 431,727 registered voters, and more than 10 percent of those individuals are Latinos, according to statistics from the Georgia Secretary of State.
Gwinnett is the only county in Georgia that is federally mandated to provide elections materials in both English and Spanish due to the size of its Latino population.
Republicans are also in the process of being swept out of Orange County, California. The immigrant population grew five times as fast as the general population between 1980 and 2000. Asian and Latino populations are expected to keep growing with the help of children born in the United States of immigrant families.
The legendary ‘Orange Curtain’ came down in the 2018 midterms and Republicans now hold only seven of the state’s 53 congressional seats, while both seats in the Senate are held by Democrats.
“No Party Preference’ voters now account for the second biggest registration bloc in California, threatening to push Republicans into third place. In mid-2018, the number of no party preference registrations pulled ahead of Republicans statewide.
The GOP was also slow to respond to legislative changes that codified “ballot harvesting,” allowing absentee voters to give their completed ballots to third-party groups to turn in.
Orange County Republican Party Chairman Fred Whitaker told Fox News last week, “The number of election day vote-by-mail drop-offs was unprecedented — over 250,000. This is a direct result of ballot harvesting. That directly caused the switch from being ahead on election night to losing two weeks later… We have to develop a response to this new law that allows us to remain competitive while recognizing the realities of Republican voter attitudes towards handing over their ballot.”
Pollster Adam Probolsky with Probolsky Research recently told The Orange County Register President Donald Trump is the “toxic factor” driving the recent exodus from the Republican Party.
With demographic trends favoring Democrats and polls showing weaknesses in candidates like Senator John Cornyn and President Trump, could the 58 Electoral College votes from Texas and Georgia be swept away from the GOP in a 2020 blue wave?